Poll: Talarico leads Paxton by 2 points in Texas Senate race
A new poll shows Democrat James Talarico with a slim lead over Republican Ken Paxton in the race for U.S. Senate in Texas. The survey from the Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center at Texas Southern University found Talarico ahead 47% to 45% among 1,200 likely voters.
The lead is within the survey's margin of error, but it is the third consecutive poll showing Talarico narrowly ahead. A Fox News poll had Talarico ahead 51% to 48%, and a Texas Public Opinion Research survey found him leading 45% to 40%.
The race is drawing comparisons to the 2018 Senate contest between Democrat Beto O'Rourke and Republican Ted Cruz. O'Rourke lost that race by 2.6 percentage points, or about 215,000 votes, in a campaign that broke fundraising records and raised Democratic hopes of turning Texas competitive.
Talarico, a state legislator from Austin, was relatively unknown outside Central Texas before launching his Senate bid. Like O'Rourke, he is running his first statewide campaign. But his campaign is most closely associated with social media, which has helped him raise money at a rapid pace.
Talarico raised $30 million last quarter, according to fundraising reports, while Paxton raised $9 million. Talarico is trying to become the first Democrat in more than three decades to win a statewide election in Texas.
The poll found Paxton underperforming with white and Latino voters. White voters make up 60% of the modeled midterm electorate, and Paxton is winning them by just 14 points. That is low for a Texas Republican. President Trump won white voters in Texas by 33 points in 2024, according to exit polls.
Latino voters make up 21% of the electorate. The poll found Talarico winning them by 19 points. Trump carried Hispanic voters in Texas by 10 points in 2024.
Paxton, a three-term state attorney general, won the Republican primary in a runoff against incumbent Sen. John Cornyn. Trump endorsed Paxton at the last minute, when it was clear he would prevail.
The GOP spent more than $60 million on Cornyn's campaign, much of it focused on negative ads targeting Paxton. Many big-dollar donors who backed Cornyn have not opened their wallets to Paxton.
Talarico's campaign has been running ads calling Paxton "the most corrupt politician in America." Paxton has faced multiple scandals during his tenure as attorney general.
Nick Maddux, a Paxton adviser, said "the only poll that matters is November 3" and predicted Talarico's campaign would end up "a pipe dream."
The political environment is also different from 2018. In October of that year, Trump had a 48% approval rating in a University of Texas/Texas Politics Project poll, with 45% disapproving. In August 2026, 51% disapprove of Trump's job performance and 43% approve.
Nicholas Long, a political science professor at St. Edward's University, said Trump's handling of the economy was a strength in 2018 but is now a weakness for Republican candidates.
"This is a stiff headwind that Republican candidates weren't facing in 2018," Long said.
The election is November 3.
